![]() ![]() These links have attracted little systematic study to date and remain a key priority for future research. These could, for example, be by way of addressing energy insecurity, financial vulnerabilities from altered tourism patterns or loss of oil revenues, and land-use competition related to environmental conservation projects. In a recent journal article, my colleague and I outline several potential ways climate policy can be linked to drivers of conflict. How climate shapes peace and security depends on how societies respond to climate change. However, the true role of climate change in causing conflict in these settings remains disputed. Typical hotspots of such dynamics are found in the Sahel and rural East Africa. This is particularly the case in places marked by climate-sensitive economic activities, political marginalisation and a history of violence. These conditions can also contribute to escalating or prolonging conflict. Research shows that adverse climate conditions may lead to more support for violence. How climate change affects conflictĬlimate change is commonly framed as a risk multiplier that worsens conditions known to increase conflict risk, such as poverty and inequality. In other words, violent conflict weakens communities and countries so that they are not in a position to adapt to the changing world around them.Īlthough it may be possible to maintain peace without successful climate adaptation, successful climate adaptation is impossible in the absence of peace. Instead, violent conflict in the context of a warming planet plays another and far more prominent role: it’s a critical driver of vulnerability, which makes adverse impacts from weather extremes more likely and more severe. However, the link between climate change and conflict is weak when compared to the main drivers of conflict, notably poverty, inequality and weak governance. ![]()
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